From my point of view, generally speaking, china would forced to face many challenges in 2009 due to the undertaking recession issues, but in the global economic world, it would still be expected to act as one of the first countries to get recovered from the recession.
There are five major issues regards to Chinese economic condition in 2009. First, China will be challenged by the influence from international economic crisis. Secondly, due to the combination impact from the home and abroad, the macroeconomic regulation in China would become more complicated; in another word, it may result in a repeating domestic inflation and deflation. Thirdly, the above situations might have side-effects on Chinese stock market and real estate market; further, the small and medium companies might face serious liquidation issues. In Addition, there is a great possibility of a dramatic decline on the employment rate. Last but not least, it would become tremendous difficulty for government to maintain a balanced financial status and also inject further confidence into Chinese economic.
To sum up, from the above analysis, it is clear that the economic situation in China for 2009 is not in positive. However, with more focus on Chinese domestic market and increasing living allowances of our lower-income groups, it is possible to achieve a stabilized economic and social position even in such a serious condition.
As we noted previously, the inflation rate (fj) represents an average rate applicable to a specific segment j of the economy. For example, if we are estimating the future cost of a piece of machinery, we should use the inflation rate appropriate the different costs and revenues in our analysis. The following example introduces the complexity of multiple inflation rates.
We will rework example 9.1 using different annual changes (differential escalation rates) in the prices of cash flow components. Suppose that we expect the general rate of inflation (f(-)) to average 6% during the next 5 years. We also expect that the salvage value of the equipment will increase 3% per year, that wages (labor) and overhead will increase 5% per year, and that the cost of material will increase 4% per year. We expect sales revenue to climb at the general inflation rate. Table 10.2 shows the relevant calculations using the income statement format. For simplicity, all cash flows and inflation effects are assumed to occur at year’s end. Determine the net present worth of this investment, using the adjusted-discount method.
正如我們之間所說，通貨膨脹率代表了經濟某特定方面的平均水平。例如，如果我們在評估壹臺機器的未來成本的時候，我們需要用適當的通貨膨脹率來分析對應的成本和收入。下面的這個例子就來介紹復合通貨膨脹率的復雜性。
我們用不同的年度變化（差別增長率）來重新看9.1的例子：假設未來5年的平均通貨膨脹率是6%。並假定設備的殘值每年增加3%、工資（勞動力）每年增加5%、材料成本每年增加4%，同時假設銷售收入適應壹般的通貨膨脹率。表10.2用損益表的形式顯示了相關的運算。簡單起見，假設所有的現金流和通貨膨脹的影響都發生在當年的年底。請用adjusted-discount的方法確定這項投資的凈現值。